Beware of the "Giggle Factor"...

Quote:I knew an intelligence officer who, decades ago, returned from the field with strong evidence that an adversary might be employing extremely unorthodox techniques to mask their activities. When he presented his suspicions to superiors, the response was: “Keep your theories to yourself. That’s so bizarre, the giggle factor will destroy your reputation.”

I knew an intelligence officer who, decades ago, returned from the field with strong evidence that an adversary might be employing extremely unorthodox techniques to mask their activities. When he presented his suspicions to superiors, the response was: “Keep your theories to yourself. That’s so bizarre, the giggle factor will destroy your reputation.”

This "giggle factor" applied to any topic such as UFOs, ESP, or far-out theories that were so far removed from normal experience that serious intelligence professionals would snicker at both the idea and whoever advanced the idea.

Psychological Roots of the Giggle Factor

A present-day example of the giggle factor surrounds the US Defense Department’s (DOD's) investigation into UFOs, now called unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs). Despite establishing a formal office to investigate UAPs and encouraging DOD employees to report sightings without fear of the consequences, the reality is that many officials working in national security privately (or not so privately) snicker at the possibility that UFOs are “real,” viewing anyone who takes the topic seriously as part of the “tinfoil hat brigade.”

I learned this from conversations with current and former officials familiar with the Pentagon’s UFO investigations while researching my new book, co-authored with Chris Gilbert, MD, Ph.D.: The New Science of UFOs: New Insights Into an Old Mystery.

One individual told me, “Yeah, the Pentagon set up the UAP investigation group, but it was all window dressing to get members of Congress who want answers about UFOs off their backs.”

Lue Elizondo, who led the Pentagon UAP investigations until 2017 said that he wanted to alert Secretary of Defense Mattis to flight safety and potential military hazards of UAPs, but the “Praetorian guard” around the Secretary wouldn’t allow it. In frustration, Elizondo resigned to continue his investigations outside the government.

Elizondo and others who took UFOs seriously were not victims of a sinister coverup or conspiracy but a fundamental psychological need to believe we have control of our lives in the present and to predict what will happen to us in the future.

Research on the roots of emotional stress demonstrates that feeling out of control in the present and uncertain about the future are two of the biggest drivers of chronic stress.1,2

As a result, we unconsciously adjust our perception of events to remain inside a low-stress comfort zone where we have at least the illusion of control and predictability of our fates.3,4

Thus, when presented evidence of uncontrollable or unpredictable changes to our lives, we tend to discount (and even giggle at) looming disruptions like climate change, COVID-19, UFOs, and other circumstances far outside our normal experience.5

In this light, the Pentagon’s persistent UFO “giggle factor” is simply the deep-seated desire most of us have to remain inside our comfort zone. And social pressure reinforces our tendency to discount improbable looming events, as no one wants to be labeled the Boy Who Cried Wolf or Chicken Little.


Military Dangers of the Giggle Factor

Although UFOs may all turn out to be misidentifications of benign human activity (errant party balloons or drones), natural phenomena (e.g., ball lightning), or perceptual errors (optical illusions), credible reports, video, and radar information captured by the US Navy in 2004 and 20153 suggest that something more exotic and unexplained is behind a few of the reports.

“Something exotic” does not necessarily mean ETs but could indicate that a foreign adversary has leapfrogged the United States in aerospace technology, which has occurred before when Russia surprised us with the first satellite (Sputnik) and both China and Russia fielded hypersonic missiles long before we did. If some UFO sightings are indeed foreign actors surveilling us or testing our responses and military capabilities (UFOs are frequently reported around U.S. military ranges and nuclear areas), then UFOs merit more than a giggle from defense officials.

But the long-standing association of UFOs with aliens will continue to cause potentially real, nonalien threats to national security from UFOs to be the “baby that is thrown out with the bathwater” and continue to be discounted. If a foreign actor surprised us in a future conflict using leapfrog technology, it’s hard to say what would happen on the battlefield, but one thing is certain: No one in the Pentagon would be giggling anymore.

The Larger Danger of the Giggle Factor

The UFO giggle factor raises a far bigger issue than the origins of mysterious flying objects that may or may not pose a threat.

Unconsciously adjusting our perceptions to reduce stress associated with potentially disruptive phenomena is normal, and even healthy under most circumstances, because stress is a big driver of both physical and mental illness.6

But the pace of change from technology, globalization, demographic shifts, and other factors is accelerating, so that unfamiliar and uncomfortable disruptions to our jobs, our relationships, and our well-being are likely to come at us at an ever-increasing rate.

Ridiculing the prospect of the most extreme of these looming disruptions will keep us in our comfort zones for a while but, sooner or later, leave us ill-prepared for the next 9/11, pandemic, war, or capitol riot.

Yes, we should not overreact to the prospect of low-probability/high-impact disruptions, but neither should we giggle, lest someone else enjoy the last laugh.

References

Eric Haseltine, Chris Gilbert. The New Science of UFOs: New Insights Into an Old Mystery. Discovery Democracy Press 2024.

1. Kelly Bilodeau. Taking control. Harvard Health Publishing. December 1, 2021.

2. Dan W. Grupe and Jack B. Nitschke. Uncertainty and Anticipation in Anxiety. Nat Rev Neurosci. 2013;14(7): 488–501.

3. Elliot, A. J., & Devine, P. G. (1994). On the motivational nature of cognitive dissonance: Dissonance as psychological discomfort. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 382–394. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.382https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1995-05331-001

4. Simon Draycott, Alan Dabbs. Cognitive dissonance 1: An overview of the literature and its integration into theory and practice in clinical psychology. British Journal of Clinical Psychology. 1998;37(3):341–353.

5. Bradley R. Staats, Diwas S. KC, Francesca Gino. Maintaining Beliefs in the Face of Negative News: The Moderating Role of Experience. Management Science. 2018;64(2): v–x, 495–981.

6. Andrew Steptoe. Invited review: The links between stress and illness. Journal of Psychosomatic Research. 1991;35(6):633–644.


Eric Haseltine, Ph.D., is a neuroscientist and the author of Long Fuse, Big Bang.

Interesting blog post...

Quote:

SPACE, SPECIE, AND FINANCIAL FRAUD

February 23, 2024 / Joseph P. Farrell

Yes, you read that headline correctly, but I guarantee you, you're not alone in doing a double-take on it. When M.D. found and sent this article along, I did  double-take too, and I even added "you've got to be kidding!" out loud. My dog, Shiloh, who is used to such exclamations and "harumphs!" looked at me briefly, whined in empathy, gave me a couple of wags of her tail, and promptly went back to sleep. But no matter how one turns one's head to look at it, that's what the headline, and the article, are saying:

The Air Force Might Have To Protect Money Laundering in Space

I have to admit, I said "You've got to be kidding!" more than once as I read this article (and the second time earned a disgusted and somewhat impatient "snort" from Shiloh, with no accompanying tail-wags). But it was well-deserved, because I literally had to read some of the opening statements in this article twice before their implications hit me.  And they hit me like a blow to the solar plexus or a slap in the face. If they don't hit you that way, then you're simply not paying attention:

Quote:If you’re looking for the ultimate in physical security for your future assets, look up, way up. Growing fears about cybersecurity and the rapidly decreasing cost to access space has given birth to a new class of startups offering satellite-based data centers impervious to all physical hacking. What sort of information is so valuable that the average person needs to protect them in space? One answer: money. Even space vaults need guards, and in this case the brunt of that job will go to U.S. Air Force.

But putting digital money into space-based data centers not only puts it out of reach from thieves, it’s also out of jurisdiction from law enforcement. In other words, the Air Force could one day soon be on the hook to protect a hive of money laundering in space.

Now, forget about all of this being connected to crypto-currencies and basing their data centers in space:

Quote:Bitcoin data servers in space sounds like a random mashup of tech buzzwords. In fact, it’s a real business model. Bitcoins are encrypted digital currency tokens. Jeff Garzik, one of only five people on the planet responsible for maintaining the core bitcoin codebase and founder of the space startup Dunvegan Space Systems, or DSS, announced this month that his company had partnered with Deep Space Industries to acquire craft to ferry 24 small satellites into space.

“Our company is pursing the financial side of things so you can store some of your Bitcoin encryption keys, some of your key backups, in space on our satellites,” Garzik said at the South by Southwest Interactive, or SXSW, technology conference in Austin, Texas, last week. “The legal and jurisdictional issues of space are really where the excitement is,” he said. “We can create new and interesting environments while not being bound to some of the earthly laws that we have constraining development … exploring new legal jurisdictions is also one reason why we need to go to space.”
These orbital safety deposit boxes would be beyond the jurisdiction (or easy capture) of any law enforcement agency, regulator or tax collector. And bitcoins have already been implicated in possible ISIS funding operations online.

No, nevermind that such companies might be helping - intentionally or otherwise - to fund international terrorism. There's a "catch", however, and it's a doozy:

Quote:But do space banks really represent the ultimate in security for data? In a 2007 missile test, China destroyed a weather satellite to much international condemnation. Over the last few years, a sense of urgency about future threats to space infrastructure has risen among many experts.

“The capability to materially harm satellites in space is well within the abilities of multiple countries, including the United States, Japan, the countries of Europe, China, Russia and India,” said John C. Mankins, president of the space systems technology group Artemis Innovation.

In other words: your money is entirely safe up there, except for potential "little" threats from China, Japan, France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Russia, India... and who knows who else?

So what's really being said here? Well, if you boil all the studied and cautious language out of it, what you're really being told is: (1) the securest place for digital currency database location is space, (2) but space also presents virtually limitless opportunities to launder money and, therefore, because it lies outside normal Earth-bound jurisdictions, for all sorts of financial fraud.

Or to put it as succinctly as possible: a space-based economy is a fraudulent one, by definition. What cannot be put up there efficiently and with cost efficiency?

Answer: bullion, specie. even pallets of paper money are out, all for the simple reason that it would be cost prohibitive. And to put that point succinctly, a space-based financial system is by definition a two-tiered system, with the fraudulent one "up there" and the (more-or-less) "honest" one being "down here."

And why is that important? Well, recall the "financialization" of commodities that I mentioned in last Wednesday's blog, and recall that that financialization of space commodities has been underway by my interpretation for a very long time (see my analysis of the initial bearer bonds scandal). We've encountered and blogged about the value of various asteroids out there, and their estimated mineral wealth. We've suggested that by collateralizing those assets already that they've also leveraged that collateralization to increase the money supply. We've even suggested that, to balance the books and "de-leverage" the system that they now actually have to go out there and get it. Or at least, pretend to do so. But the pretense can only last for a while, because sooner of later, one has to send the galleons, load them with mineral wealth, and bring them back to Spai... er... Earth, where the sudden influx of bulllion will increase the money supply, and drive up prices, and drive out industry to less labor-costly areas.

In short, the space economy is not only fraudulent, but that fraud must sooner or later be balanced by actual recovery of commodities in and from space.

Mr. Globalooney is, in other words, now trapped. Sooner or later he will have to invoke space to his rescue.. and like he has done so often in the past, that may come in the form of a (real, or fake) war.
Hence, all the UFO and aliens talk recently in Mr. Globalooney's lamestream propotainment media, and by the governments of the West that he (thinks he) owns and controls.

He's nothing if not consistent... and consistently stupid.

See you on the flip side...

The Giza Death Star

A short vid on physiologist Walter B. Cannon's 1942 paper on the phenomenon of so-called "Voodoo Death" - a lesson we may need soon.




Cannon's 1942 "Voodoo Death" paper: 13 page PDF

Sternberg's 60 year perspective on Cannon's paper:
Walter B. Cannon and “ ‘Voodoo’ Death”: A Perspective From 60 Years On

Hypnosis and the power of suggestion and Belief is the same mechanism that makes placebo's heal, or curse. Belief is a true superpower, choose your cult wisely.

Not saying this is correct or anything but it makes a good argument for a theocratic like legal & monetary system of the beast leveraging the apostate church. Quite fascinating to be honest. Yes, it is 3 videos but very informative to a possible outcome....to say the least.

Quote:The book of Revelation warns that the United States of America will be the first country to enforce the mark of the beast. Deceived religious leaders will form a church and state union, false miracles will be performed, and laws will be passed to enforce the mark on the people of America and then the globe. It will be so deceptive that most Christians will accept it. Watch this video to learn more!

So I went to my stylist yesterday for my usual trim and had an interesting conversation. She asked if I wanted my usual trim or if I was ready for something different, to which I replied that I had promised my mom I would keep growing my hair out because after getting the first two covid shots her once beautiful hair has huge bald patches now so she cut it short and wears wigs most of the time now. Her eyes got really big and then she proceeds to tell me that all of her older clients (and some younger ones) who got the covid shots have all started losing clumps of hair, the more shots they took the greater the hair loss.

Though that certainly came as no surprise to me (pretty much every woman I know in RL who got the shots has been experiencing problems with this) what she told me next WAS a surprise. She said that her clients who are taking the Ozempic shots are also experiencing the same sort of hair loss and that the more shots they get the more hair is thinning and falling out. 

I just thought I'd put this here as a warning. We've heard about the increase in thyroid problems, pancreatitis, sepsis and stomach cancers from Ozempic and other brand names of these shots but this is the first I've heard of hair loss from them- and someone who does nothing but deal with hair all day every day would definitely be one to know!

Have a great weekend Rogues!

2:06 to 5:31 runs the Ad.

Quote:Mysteries Beneath the Ice: The Secrets of Antarctica Rumors of UFOs and other strangeness in Antarctica go back a long time. Operation Highjump arrived in 1946 with a heavily armed US Navy fleet. Their mission was to extend American sovereignty over Antarctica. The mission was supposed to take six months. Instead, it lasted six weeks. The Operation ended because of poor weather. At least, that's the official report. Eyewitnesses said aggressive flying craft chasing the Navy out of the area. In 1985, a medevac flight was forced over a "no-fly" zone near the South Pole. The crew saw a giant hole in the ice, as wide as a football field. When the crew returned to base, they were debriefed. Not by the Navy. By men in suits. One of the crewmen said they had the typical "DC look." In the 1990s, Navy flight crews reported silver discs zipping over mountain peaks at impossible speeds. The crews were told to never speak of it. In 2003, a Navy SEAL on a covert mission found an ancient structure protruding through the ice. It was made of something that wasn't quite metal but wasn't quite stone. It was warm to the touch. And on that structure was a door. Since the launch of Google Earth, hundreds of images of tunnels and entrances have been found leading into the Antarctic ice - miles deep, including a perfectly circular hole a half-mile wide. In 2018, scientists in Antarctica launched weather balloons to study cosmic rays coming from space and hitting the Earth. They found cosmic rays. as expected. But what they didn't expect: the cosmic rays were coming from "something" two miles underneath the ice. There are witnesses who have seen things, heard things, and felt things that should not exist in Antarctica. Yet they do. Whatever's down there, we're not supposed to know about it. But one thing's for sure, something very strange - and very important - is happening at the bottom of the world.

Potential PANIC or at least highly enriched interest:

Quote:Damian Williams, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York; Matthew G. Olsen, the Assistant Attorney General of the Justice Department’s National Security Division; and Anne Milgram, the Administrator of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (“DEA”), announced the issuance today of a Superseding Indictment charging TAKESHI EBISAWA with conspiring with a network of associates to traffic nuclear materials from Burma to other countries.  In the course of this conspiracy, EBISAWA and his confederates showed samples of nuclear materials in Thailand to a DEA undercover agent (“UC-1”), who was posing as a narcotics and weapons trafficker.  With the assistance of Thai authorities, the nuclear samples were seized and subsequently transferred to the custody of U.S. law enforcement.  A U.S. nuclear forensic laboratory later analyzed the samples and confirmed that the samples contain uranium and weapons-grade plutonium.

EBISAWA and co-defendant SOMPHOP SINGHASIRI were previously charged in April 2022 with international narcotics trafficking and firearms offenses, and both have been ordered detained.  EBISAWA and SINGHASIRI will be arraigned on the Superseding Indictment before U.S. District Judge Colleen McMahon tomorrow at noon.

Quote:U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said: “It is impossible to overstate the seriousness of the conduct alleged in today’s Indictment.  As alleged, Takeshi Ebisawa brazenly trafficked material containing uranium and weapons-grade plutonium from Burma to other countries.  He allegedly did so while believing that the material was going to be used in the development of a nuclear weapons program, and the weapons-grade plutonium he trafficked, if produced in sufficient quantities, could have been used for that purpose.  Even as he allegedly attempted to sell nuclear materials, Ebisawa also negotiated for the purchase of deadly weapons, including surface-to-air missiles.   I want to thank the career prosecutors of my Office and our law enforcement partners for their unwavering commitment to protecting our national security by ensuring that the defendant will now face justice in an American court.”

Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen said: “The defendant stands accused of conspiring to sell weapons grade nuclear material and lethal narcotics from Burma, and to purchase military weaponry on behalf of an armed insurgent group.  It is chilling to imagine the consequences had these efforts succeeded, and the Justice Department will hold accountable those who traffic in these materials and threaten U.S. national security and international stability.”

DEA Administrator Anne Milgram said: “As alleged, the defendants in this case trafficked in drugs, weapons, and nuclear material — going so far as to offer uranium and weapons-grade plutonium fully expecting that Iran would use it for nuclear weapons.  This is an extraordinary example of the depravity of drug traffickers who operate with total disregard for human life.  I commend the men and women of DEA and this prosecution team for their tireless work to protect us from such evil.”

According to the allegations contained in the Superseding Indictment, which was unsealed today in Manhattan federal court:

Beginning in early 2020, EBISAWA informed UC-1 and a DEA confidential source (“CS-1”) that EBISAWA had access to a large quantity of nuclear materials that he wanted to sell.  Later that year, EBISAWA sent UC-1 a series of photographs depicting rocky substances with Geiger counters measuring radiation, as well as pages of what EBISAWA represented to be lab analyses indicating the presence of thorium and uranium in the depicted substances.  In response to EBISAWA’s repeated inquiries, UC-1 agreed, as part of the DEA’s investigation, to help EBISAWA broker the sale of his nuclear materials to UC-1’s associate, who was posing as an Iranian general (the “General”), for use in a nuclear weapons program.  EBISAWA then offered to supply the General with “plutonium” that would be even “better” and more “powerful” than uranium for this purpose.  Examples of the photographs sent by EBISAWA are shown below:

During their discussions regarding EBISAWA’s access to nuclear materials, EBISAWA also engaged with UC-1 concerning EBISAWA’s desire to purchase military-grade weapons.  To that end, in May 2021, EBISAWA sent UC-1 a list of weapons, including surface-to-air missiles, that EBISAWA wished to purchase from UC-1 on behalf of the leader of an ethnic insurgent group in Burma (“CC-1”).  Together with two other co-conspirators (“CC-2” and “CC-3”), EBISAWA proposed to UC-1 that CC-1 sell uranium to the General, through EBISAWA, to fund CC-1’s weapons purchase.  On a February 4, 2022 videoconference, CC-2 told UC-1 that CC-1 had available more than 2,000 kilograms of Thorium-232 and more than 100 kilograms of uranium in the compound U3O8 — referring to a compound of uranium commonly found in the uranium concentrate powder known as “yellowcake” — and that CC-1 could produce as much as five tons of nuclear materials in Burma.  CC-2 also advised that CC-1 had provided samples of the uranium and thorium, which CC-2 was prepared to show to UC-1’s purported buyers.  CC-2 noted that the samples should be packed “to contain . . . the radiation.”

About one week later, EBISAWA, CC-2, and CC-3 participated in a series of meetings with UC-1 and CS-1 in Southeast Asia, to discuss their ongoing weapons, narcotics, and nuclear materials transactions.  During one of these meetings, CC-2 asked UC-1 to meet in CC-2’s hotel room.  Inside the room, CC-2 showed UC-1 two plastic containers each holding a powdery yellow substance (the “Nuclear Samples”), which CC-2 described as “yellowcake.”  CC-2 advised that one container held a sample of uranium in the compound U3O8, and the other container held Thorium-232.  UC-1 photographed and video-recorded the Nuclear Samples, images of which are shown below:



With the assistance of Thai authorities, the Nuclear Samples were seized and subsequently transferred to the custody of U.S. law enforcement authorities.  A U.S. nuclear forensic laboratory examined the Nuclear Samples and determined that both samples contain detectable quantities of uranium, thorium, and plutonium.  In particular, the laboratory determined that the isotope composition of the plutonium found in the Nuclear Samples is weapons-grade, meaning that the plutonium, if produced in sufficient quantities, would be suitable for use in a nuclear weapon.

*                *                *

A table containing the charges and minimum and maximum penalties for EBISAWA, 60, of Japan, and SINGHASIRI, 61, of Thailand, is set forth below.  The minimum and maximum potential sentences in this case are prescribed by Congress and are provided here for informational purposes only, as any sentencing of the defendants will be determined by Judge McMahon.

Mr. Williams praised the outstanding efforts of the DEA’s Special Operations Division Bilateral Investigations Unit.  Mr. Williams also thanked the DEA Tokyo Country Office, DEA Bangkok Country Office, DEA Chiang Mai Resident Office, DEA Jakarta Country Office, DEA Copenhagen Country Office, DEA New York Field Office, DEA New Delhi Country Office, the Counterterrorism Section of the Department of Justice’s National Security Division, the Office of International Affairs of the Department of Justice’s Criminal Division, and our law enforcement partners in Indonesia, Japan, and the Kingdom of Thailand for their assistance.

This prosecution is part of an Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Forces (“OCDETF”) operation.  OCDETF identifies, disrupts, and dismantles the highest-level criminal organizations that threaten the United States using a prosecutor-led, intelligence-driven, multi-agency approach.  Additional information about the OCDETF Program can be found at https://www.justice.gov/OCDETF.

The case is being handled by the Office’s National Security and International Narcotics Unit.  Assistant U.S. Attorneys Alexander Li, Kaylan E. Lasky, and Kevin T. Sullivan are in charge of the prosecution, with assistance from Trial Attorney Dmitriy Slavin of the Counterterrorism Section.

The charges contained in the Superseding Indictment are merely allegations, and the defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.

I'm not sure if this was discussed here yet. I tried the search feature for the first time, so forgive me if I missed it.

Quote:Butler County sheriff ramps up training, security after FBI warning of terror attacks
By Lauren Pack Updated Feb 7, 2024

At the National Sheriff’s Association Conference in Washington, D.C, last week, Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones heard warnings from the FBI of imminent terrorist attacks on the U.S., and he is out to make sure his department is prepared.
“It’s not if they are going to attack, it’s just when they are,” Jones said. “There are people already here who have come to this country who hate us and want to kill us.”
Lines of attack, he said he was told, will be through cyber attacks, crippling power grids, train derailments and cells of armed terrorists who target multiple areas of the country.

. . . Jones said the Chinese have the U.S. outnumbered 50 to 1 in people working on cyber attacks and prevention.

“Their deal is to cause us disruption in our county. To cause chaos in our country, not like next week — now. From the red flags and chatter that they (FBI) are hearing,” he said.
Jones said the FBI also said people have come across the border to “do harm to us … that they have never seen it this bad.”
Thousands of people are working to disrupt the country, including national and local elections, he said.
“They told us we need to be prepared to talk to local county election people to be prepared,” Jones said. “They want us to lose faith in our government.”
He said big cities will not just be the target, terrorists also will hit in smaller cities and rural areas where people typically feel safe.

Yesterday, a brief discussion was sparked in the shoutbox regaring an item that 727Sky posted there. The item in question was:

Quote:From ATS: This appeared on Reddit. It was found folded under a windshield wiper on a car in Italy. The scary thing is how plausible it is. If you can't read it here are the basics. On May 8, 2024 a signal in multi languages will be sent to all the illegal immigrants that have come over the border in the last three years. It will tell them to kill as many americans as possible. At the same time, China will Invade Taiwan and North Korea will invade South Korea. Israel will be hit with Dirty bombs launched from Syria. Poland and Ukraine will both have their capitals destroyed Russian Nuclear Weapons. European and World Government will collapse. The war will last 6 days before the US and the World Capitulate and surrender. Mexico will be given control of the United States for their cooperation with getting the illegal aliens across the border. (And Yes, they all have cellphones, paid for by someone else, since they are walking and not working.) The entire operation was orchestrated by China, which wil become the dominant global power. All the citizens of the United States will be farmed out across the planet as part of the surrender. .....At least there is a date !! hahahah

These cranes are not just dumb cranes but are packed with sensors and A.I. thanks to China; who can spy and probably push a button and via the internet stop all cranes from functioning. A real cyber risk