Looks like the war with Iran is cooking off

[The Crying Bunny]

. . . and only sheep follow where their Master leads them.



Effing brilliant, old man!

[Ninurta]

. . . and only sheep follow where their Master leads them.



Effing brilliant, old man!

Aww... shucks!

But it's true! Ever tried to herd cats? Cat's ain't sheep. Damned near impossible to herd them into a box canyon! And I ain't met a cat yet that's content to stay inside a fenced pen.

.

[nerb]

A stagnant mind sinks, and only sheep follow where their Master leads them.

While the Sheepdog hops the fence to adventure where others fear to tread, returning to guide those who need gentle nudging in the right direction.

Masters too.

"That'll Do Pig!"

[EndtheMadnessNow]

The End Is Nigh. Funny how that stupid clock has not ticked 1 second closer since January 27, 2026. 85 seconds to go.

Alert Status: Condition Blue – DEFCON 4
16 March 2026 – 1:00 PM UTC

Over the past week, several developments across multiple regions have begun to reveal the strategic consequences of the expanding war involving Iran.

What initially appeared to be a short and decisive military campaign is now exposing deeper geopolitical fault lines: uncertainty surrounding Iran’s future leadership, disagreements among NATO partners over military commitments in the Middle East, and renewed concerns regarding nuclear developments in North Korea.

Taken individually, each of these issues represents a manageable regional concern. Taken together, however, they illustrate a broader pattern of strategic instability that bears careful monitoring.

The DEFCON Warning System currently remains at Condition Blue – DEFCON 4, indicating that there are no imminent nuclear threats at this time. Nevertheless, several developments within the global security environment warrant continued observation.

Regime Change in Iran Appears Increasingly Unlikely

One of the most significant developments concerns the evolving strategic outcome of the ongoing conflict involving Iran.

During the early stages of the war, some policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem believed that military strikes against Iranian leadership and infrastructure might trigger internal collapse of the Iranian government. That expectation now appears increasingly unrealistic.

Despite the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader during the opening phase of the conflict, the country’s governing structures have remained largely intact. Iran’s political and military institutions appear to have transitioned rapidly to a new leadership arrangement, maintaining continuity across the country’s military, political, and religious power networks.

Israeli and American officials have begun privately acknowledging that regime change in Iran may not be achievable through military pressure alone.

This outcome carries important strategic implications.

If Iran’s current leadership structure remains in place after the conflict ends, analysts believe the government in Tehran may accelerate development of nuclear weapons as a deterrent against future external attacks. Iran already possesses significant quantities of highly enriched uranium, reportedly enough for multiple nuclear weapons should the political decision to proceed with weaponisation be made.

Historically, states that experience direct military attacks frequently strengthen their reliance on nuclear deterrence rather than abandon it. For this reason, even if the current conflict concludes without nuclear escalation, the long-term effect could be a more determined Iranian pursuit of nuclear capability.

Such an outcome would significantly alter the strategic balance in the Middle East and could introduce new long-term stability challenges in the region.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions and Alliance Tensions

A second major issue involves the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait remains one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world, with roughly twenty percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments normally passing through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.

The ongoing conflict has significantly disrupted shipping in the region. Drone attacks, naval mines, and missile threats have forced many commercial vessels to avoid the area entirely, sharply reducing traffic through the strait.

Energy markets have already reacted to the disruption. Global fuel prices have risen as supply concerns ripple across international markets.

Although the United States Navy retains the capability to reopen the strait, doing so would likely require a substantial multinational operation to clear naval mines and provide security for commercial shipping.

This requirement has contributed to growing tension between the United States and several allied nations.

Washington has requested military assistance from NATO partners to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and support operations against Iranian naval threats. However, several allied governments have been reluctant to commit military forces to the effort.

Countries including Japan, Germany, and Australia have reportedly declined requests to deploy military assets, while other partners have offered only limited assistance.

The situation has prompted criticism from Washington that the alliance is becoming a “one-way street,” in which the United States bears a disproportionate share of global security responsibilities.

The dispute highlights a broader strategic concern regarding alliance cohesion.

If NATO allies remain divided over major military operations outside Europe, it could weaken perceptions of alliance unity during future crises. For nuclear deterrence, alliance credibility plays an important role. Any appearance of fragmentation among Western alliances may influence how rival powers assess strategic risks and opportunities.

Nuclear War Risk & Stability Report - 16 March 2026


At the going rate, $200 billion request to congress being asked by the Pentagon will give the war machine about 180 war days. Highly likely less because this war is going to evolve, expand & transform very quickly.

Regime change is nearly impossible without a ground invasion. Human boots (or Terminators) on the ground must be deployed if you are serious in order to have a powerful force overthrowing the existing regime and replace it with a new one. Sounds simple enough, but it isn't. Air power alone constantly bombing Iran isn’t nearly enough. For now it's whomever can absorb the most punishment, Iran or Israel. The Gulf countries will soon fold and cry uncle.


Joe Kent just revealed the last thing Charlie Kirk said to him:
"The [Kirk] investigation that I was a part of... we were stopped from continuing to investigate. But there was still a lot for us to look into that I can’t really get into."

More reason why the Samson Option indicator is beginning to blink red.


https://x.com/Holden_Culotta/status/2034419794099777620


Wow, check this out: So, we got a couple of E2C-Hawkeye's doing battlespace recon over the Straits of Hormuz to provide targets to Apache helos and say hello to BBBUUURRRTTT...


https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/2034608585468952742

General "Raizin" Caine gave the proper use of the term "Flank" in regards to the Strait of Hormuz, just as the Shatt al-Arab waterway is part of the northern flank.

We do have one caveat, but will cut him some slack, which is "Strait of Hormuz" not the plural "Straits."  Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Imagine the BRRrrrrrrrrr echo in Strait of Hormuz. Damn, wish I was a cameraman over there capturing it all.


This is Romeo Foxtrot: Shall we dance?!


Pontoons are outfitted with optional napalm canisters or leaflets.

With surf racks!



Or the optional Battleship package capable of suppressive fire while floating through Straits of Hormuz.




In 1988, Trump told the Guardian newspaper that if he was in charge, he would "do a number on Kharg Island."


Polly Toynbee, British journalist and writer is still alive. Same age as Trump.


Caught this on the tube earlier: "Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and the embarked 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit is deploying ahead of schedule from the West Coast and is expected to sail through the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East region after the Navy was ordered to surge additional fire power."

As Iran continues its increased demolition on Israel and its stranglehold on SoH, more US fire power will be called in.

The IDF released an update on the number of combat sorties flown and munitions employed since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion.

Iran:
- Over 12,000 munitions employed (approximately 3,600 of them in Tehran).
- Approximately 5,700 combat sorties flown.

Lebanon:
- Over 2,200 munitions employed against approximately 2,000 targets.
- Over 1,000 combat sorties flown.

Photo: IAF F-16C Block 40 Barak single-seat, single-engine multirole fighters from "The First Fighter Squadron" equipped with GBU-31 JDAMs, AIM-9L/M Sidewinders and external fuel tanks.




LOL.
While taking questions earlier in the Oval Office alongside Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, President Trump was asked by a Japanese reporter why the United States did not inform allies - like Japan - prior to strikes against Iran, to which he responded:

"Well, one thing you don't want to signal too much, you know. When we go in, we went in very hard, and we didn't tell anybody about it because we wanted surprise? Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Okay? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?"


https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2034672227422011549


The Economist assessment of who is most vulnerable to the Iran energy shock:


Exposure = Net oil & gas imports as % GDP; % of oil & has imports from Middle East; Gulf remittances as % GDP

Buffers = Government debt as % GDP; foreign-exchange reserves (months of imports)
Which country is the biggest loser from the energy shock?

[EndtheMadnessNow]

Trump floats the idea of the U.S. abandoning the Strait of Hormuz to pull in stubborn NATO countries. Bold move considering the one country that relies on it the most is China...which Iran is giving free passage.

On the SoH we've gone from:

1. Don't need help
2. We need help
3. Why the hell aren't folks helping?
4. Help is on the way
5. Not telling you who is helping
6. Help is not actually on the way but we don't need it anyway
7. We may just abandon SoH and leave it to everyone else

If this is the art of the deal, I'll never understand. One has to be a Chaos magician.





Mark Rutte giving it his best effort to make daddy proud...


https://x.com/townhallcom/status/2034325243523645716


Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was asked on an American podcast if he was afraid of American "boots on the ground" and he said, "No, no, we're waiting for them" and then he gave this smirk which moments later this meme was produced:




The Iranian Armed Forces spokesman trolls Trump...

https://x.com/LBGamestips/status/2033602340599558655


Aftermath of Joe Kent's resignation...




Uh oh, Houston, we may have a reputational damage problem (if true)
Unclear with what at this point.


The injured F-35 made an emergency landing at one of the air bases in the Middle East region. Emergency landing confirmed by CENTCOM. May have been something went wrong with the jet itself.


In the 1991 Persian Gulf war, the United States had 86 aircraft destroyed or damaged by enemy action. Of those, more than half (~51) were taken out of action within the first 20 days of the onset of the air war. (Gulf Airpower Survey, p. 61.)

By 2003, in Operation Iraqi Freedom, I believe there was only one US air combat loss: an A-10 was shot down over Baghdad. The pilot ejected and survived.


Gulf War Air Power Survey Summary Report (1993)


Treasury Secretary Bessent is recommending not just repealing the sanctions on Russian oil, but also...wait for it...IRANIAN OIL! That would oil on the water, in tankers.

There is still about 3,200 ships stuck in the Persian Gulf. Ports are overwhelmed and security is such that they are refusing permission for ships to dock. Some of the ships are reporting they are running out of fresh water and low on food.


NBC, WaPo and Newsmax are all reporting the same:

The US military has accelerated the deployment of thousands of Marines and sailors to help reinforce US troops in the Middle East. The deployment of the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and embarked 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit from California has been sped up to occur within days, per two officials.

The task force, with about 4,500 sailors and Marines, is expected to head across the Pacific, eventually replacing the 31st MEU in the Middle East. The 31st MEU was dispatched a week or so ago and is closing in on the region now.

Boxer Amphibious Ready Group includes the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship which serves as a mini aircraft carrier and USS Portland and USS Comstock amphibious landing ships. There are roughly 2,500 Marines and 4,000 total service members aboard these three amphibs.

[F2d5thCav]

@"EndtheMadnessNow"#18 

This isn't art of the deal.  They were offered deals and pretended to be above all that.

This is the art of squeezing testicles to get the attention of the managerial technocrats and kleptocrats pretending to be political leaders.

The USA can weather closure of Hormuz.  Europe, Japan, China ... not so much.

[727Sky]

Closing the tunnels 



Aviate navigate communicate then push a button and make them disappear is my kind of war fighting... 

---

[David64]

 I'll leave 'em where they lay for the critters to eat, cause critters gotta eat, too.



.

"Buzzards gotta eat, same as worms"

- Josey Wales

[sahgwa]

The only thing propping up the dollar though , with all that debt, is our military and our logistics and cultural reach.
It's like the mafia.  That's partly why we are in Iran, it is largely about oil and markets.  
If we can't militarily enforce our economic choices then it's all over.
So that's also what makes it interseting.
Also when other countries decide to stop 'buying our debt' , like China dumping bonds etc. 
Very interesting times. 
When they can't make the corrupt system work anymore, then they change the rules . 
I dont think I will like the new game very much, if they are able to get it started. (digital shits)

My personal plan for the "digital economy" is to immediately upon receiving any form of digital hoodoo, to take the digital hoodoo and convert it into hard assets that can be held in MY hand, used for trade, and/or buried and/or hidden in various caves here... before the bastards can "revoke" it with their "programmable money" bullshit.

I've already got my own "renewable" means for hunting should they try to truncate my ability to, for example, buy meat with their digital hoodoo, and woe betide any dumbass that thinks it might be a good idea to come into the woods after me for hunting. I'll leave 'em where they lay for the critters to eat, cause critters gotta eat, too.

As time goes by, and as circumstances warrant, I'll find or develop other workarounds for their digital bullshit, too. A stagnant mind sinks, and only sheep follow where their Master leads them.

.

That is a solid plan. I use cash for everything I buy under 50 bucks in person, generally speaking.  Online I use a lot of amazon points because I get free money for using the Chase credit and just pay it off each month, so who says no to free books?
But once cash stops being accepted I don't really have a plan.
I feel kind of ideologically lost as despite ability and training with Boy Scouts and the Army , I am used to a comfortable life of my choosing.  So it's always like how much of the game do you want to play without being totally controlled by it. . . . tough calls.

[OmegaLogos]

The only thing propping up the dollar though , with all that debt, is our military and our logistics and cultural reach.
It's like the mafia.  That's partly why we are in Iran, it is largely about oil and markets.  
If we can't militarily enforce our economic choices then it's all over.
So that's also what makes it interseting.
Also when other countries decide to stop 'buying our debt' , like China dumping bonds etc. 
Very interesting times. 
When they can't make the corrupt system work anymore, then they change the rules . 
I dont think I will like the new game very much, if they are able to get it started. (digital shits)

My personal plan for the "digital economy" is to immediately upon receiving any form of digital hoodoo, to take the digital hoodoo and convert it into hard assets that can be held in MY hand, used for trade, and/or buried and/or hidden in various caves here... before the bastards can "revoke" it with their "programmable money" bullshit.

I've already got my own "renewable" means for hunting should they try to truncate my ability to, for example, buy meat with their digital hoodoo, and woe betide any dumbass that thinks it might be a good idea to come into the woods after me for hunting. I'll leave 'em where they lay for the critters to eat, cause critters gotta eat, too.

As time goes by, and as circumstances warrant, I'll find or develop other workarounds for their digital bullshit, too. A stagnant mind sinks, and only sheep follow where their Master leads them.

.

That is a solid plan. I use cash for everything I buy under 50 bucks in person, generally speaking.  Online I use a lot of amazon points because I get free money for using the Chase credit and just pay it off each month, so who says no to free books?
But once cash stops being accepted I don't really have a plan.
I feel kind of ideologically lost as despite ability and training with Boy Scouts and the Army , I am used to a comfortable life of my choosing.  So it's always like how much of the game do you want to play without being totally controlled by it. . . . tough calls.

Explanation: Fresh Water and SEEDS will be worth more than gold or silver or even crypto currency ...

Ammo and medicines will be also worth more than those things ...followed by smokes and vice drugs like hard liquor , pot , pills and injectables!

Personal Disclosure: I hope I live long enough to see Gods wrath poured out upon the earth and then to die quickly and cleanly standing upright and facing death dead in the face and smiling back at them!

Death is nothing new to me as I have already died one lifetime before and twice in this lifetime!

And into the arms of my ancient greek death goddess Achlys I shall hope to find myself when I come too!



As for Iran ... its goose is cooked eh!

And that has both pro's and con's associated with it! Pick some con's you can live with and then benefit from the pro's that come with those con's!

Its hellish traps all the way down from heaven to the lowest deepest hells and so I have already made my bed and I sleep comfortably when and where I choose to sleep! For despite everyone's RAGE, I am still just a rat in a gilded cage!

[Intro]

"And disciplinary remains mercifully"
"Yes and um, I’m with you, Derek, this star nonsense"
"Yes, yes"
"Now which is it?"
"I am sure of it"

[Instrumental Break]

[Verse 1: David Gilmour]
So, so you think you can tell
Heaven from Hell? Blue skies from pain?
Can you tell a green field from a cold steel rail?
A smile from a veil? Do you think you can tell?

[Verse 2: David Gilmour]
Did they get you to trade your heroes for ghosts?
Hot ashes for trees? Hot air for a cool breeze?
Cold comfort for change? Did you exchange
A walk-on part in the war for a lead role in a cage?

[Instrumental Break]

[Chorus: David Gilmour]
How I wish, how I wish you were here
We're just two lost souls swimming in a fishbowl, year after year
Running over the same old ground, what have we found?
The same old fears, wish you were here

How absurd! 

[EndtheMadnessNow]

Iran fired a pair of intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.-UK base in the Indian Ocean. One missile failed in flight, and another was engaged by a US Navy destroyer using an SM-3 missile.

Bigger story here: implied range of an Iranian IRBM from a launch box somewhere in central Iran, with a range of ~4500 km (distance to Diego Garcia). Iran reveals that the range of its missiles far exceeds what it has officially acknowledged. Should be no surprise. Theoretically could also target sites into Central Europe...and maybe even England pending whatever asymmetric capabilities! Euro's best dust off those cold war bunkers!

There’s a reason why the U.S./NATO parked what is effectively an Arleigh Burke class DDG in a Romanian field.


Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System site | Deveselu Military Base


Hehehe, Mr Foreign Minister, lookup in about 10 hours.


Keir Starmer: shivering & sweating, do I piss off daddy and demand no more use of air bases OR kneel to the Mullahs??


What is that orange ball in the sky over ENGLAND?!




And there it is...

https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/203...9692095645

Goes to show that the U.S. politicians actually have no idea how much they rely on their allies. They could perhaps do without Spain, but Germany or Britain? They literally would be unable to conduct this operation without the cooperation of Germany and Britain.

Other NATO countries the U.S. are relying on to support combat operations are Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania. They rely on France, the Netherlands and Italy for overflight rights. Also Canada, again for overflight and fuel stops for C-17s.

So...senator Flip-flop, you should be very careful about what you wish for. One day all these countries you rely on to wave your aircraft through may tell you to go pound sand. Now on the flip side this would save us a lot of money...But, American peasants wouldn't see a dime of it.


Some of the clearest footage of an intercepted Iranian ballistic missile fragment falling on northern Israel last night.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2035090193800126721


Ah, seems he's familiar with Gen. Westy 'scorch earth' Westmoreland


Wonder if he's aware of national security adviser Walt W. Rostow alerted LBJ on Feb 10, 1968 about a secret operation (Fracture Jaw) organized by Gen. William Westmoreland that included moving nuclear weapons to South Vietnam. Historian Michael Beschloss discovered the documents.


Barksdale AFB was hit by multiple waves of drones:


Maybe them drones were AMERICAN to pressure congress to hand over $200 billion for the war or maybe this was a battlespace synchronization exercise.


As we learned yesterday, Trump has been fantasizing on seizing Kharg Island since 1988.





Keep the enemy guessing via deception.



What Boots On The Ground In Iran Could Entail According To Former CENTCOM Commander


Are we in The Final Countdown?

[angelchemuel]

Romania hey? I remember Cranky on ATS telling us to watch Romania.
I'm also a little concerned about Turkey.
I've also kept in mind that our last PM Sunak called our General Election when nobody was really expecting it. It was due, yes, but he called the election in quite the reverse order of doing so. It was leaked that he'd come from a COBRA meeting with the millitary and he didn't want to be remembered "as a war time PM".

I'm just mulling.
Rainbows
Jane

[F2d5thCav]

@"angelchemuel"#159 

Cranky ... enjoyed reading his comments even if I didn't agree with every detail.  Hope he's okay.

Romania.  Politics there have been, eh, interesting the last few months.

[angelchemuel]

@"angelchemuel"#159 

Cranky ... enjoyed reading his comments even if I didn't agree with every detail.  Hope he's okay.

Romania.  Politics there have been, eh, interesting the last few months.

Really? In what way please? Not wanting to thread drift, but could Romania come into play here?
Thank you.
Rainbows
Jane

[F2d5thCav]

@"angelchemuel"#159 

Cranky ... enjoyed reading his comments even if I didn't agree with every detail.  Hope he's okay.

Romania.  Politics there have been, eh, interesting the last few months.

Really? In what way please? Not wanting to thread drift, but could Romania come into play here?
Thank you.
Rainbows
Jane

That's a good question.  I'm perhaps too history-minded.  Romania used to be a major producer of oil; I'd have to read up to know how that looks today.  I think the Ploesti oil fields are played out.  So, maybe some economic impact in the wake of disruption of Middle East region energy supplies.

My comment about their politics was about how their political processes got manhandled by the EU to ensure the "correct" candidate won the recent election.  In a way, that plays into decisions being made by the Trump administration today, as Trump's lieutenants are not enthused with the way the EU has overtly intervened in national elections in Europe.  Hungary's election is coming up and the opposition candidate there is depicted by some as an agent of Brussels sent to remove Orban from power.